War “Unavoidable”, Lt Gen Yaalon
In a briefing to the Israeli cabinet, Director of Israeli Military Intelligence Brig. Gen. Baidatz dramatically revised the timetable for Iranian nuclear weapons capability. With 1 1/2 tons of enriched uranium already and 4000 centrifuges [no peaceful purpose] whirring the general states that Iran is “on the brink” of weapons capability. As reported by Debka, Lt. Gen. Yaalon stated that “an Israel Iran war seems unavoidable”.
With no power comitting to interfering with their own troops, all major powers, despite helium filled rhetoric at the useless UN, have approved of the coming war by their silence.
Marshall Ivan would add that it is likely that the Iranian networks in Europe and the US will make Al Qaida look like kindergarteners. There will be casualties in the West—but hopefully nothing like an Iranian nuke would present.
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Comment by slowsmile on 25 September 2008:
Liked your article, and the war between Israel and Iran will probably happen as you say. But neither Europe nor the US is bound to get involved - there will probably be plenty of covert support but nothing overt like a direct attack with troops. With America still writhing from its financial and fiscal
problems and Europe now impotent because of her accepted dependency on Russian oil and gas(look at the feeble European and US reaction to the Russian overrun of Georgia as an example), America will stand back and Europe will obey Putin, who has become the new Czar of Europe.
I also wonder when China will step into the game, and perhaps dump all her trillions of dollars and T-Bills. This will kill America’s economy like a fiscal poison.
Comment by Marshall Ivan Risidin on 25 September 2008:
Slowsmile, China has been “in it” for a long time. Many of Iran’s missile are of Chinese origin. China has an interest in keeping the US busy as its hegemony encroaches on Asia.
The US will certainly be affected by Iranian terror cells at home. With enough casualties in the US, the US will openly fight. Iran’s terrorist are likely well funded, superbly trained, disciplined and relative to Al Qaida effective. The probable selection of a weak American president will push Israel sooner, as will moon and weather considerations.
Comment by slowsmile on 25 September 2008:
Agreed Ivan. But since I’m living in Asia now - thankfully out of Europe - I am more worried about China. I’ve read several articles concerning the likelyhood of China re-taking Taiwan before 2012. I have also read some articles that say Taiwan will will be quietly traded by the Americans(who have an existing treaty with Taiwan) in exchange for China not dumping her dollars, since this would finish the American economy. China has already threatened to do this once, when the US considered taxing Chinese imports in 2006. America is greatly weakened now, and as we all know, an enemy will always try to weaken its opponent economically before they go to war.
And if China does take Taiwan, why stop there ?
Comment by Marshall Ivan Risidin on 25 September 2008:
Slowsmile, good points. Have you read “The Grand Chessboard: by Zbignew Brezhinski [sp]. Although it was written circa 1991, it is prescient today. I often disagree with Zbig, and particularly his former boss Carter—but this book is gold dust. There is another set from Professor Pillsbury at the war college, but you would need a badge to read them!
China will move when it is ready.
Marshall Ivan is pushing INDIA as the natural restraint. It is so obvious Helen Keller could see itthat i will not bother you with the reasons.
Comment by slowsmile on 25 September 2008:
I will look for the Brezhinski book that you have recommended, although the only books that I can find where I am living - are all written on papaya leaves I think. So I will trawl the internet for a partial read - perhaps I can find it on a visit to Malaysia soon. Thank you for that.
I take your point about India, although I think China’s intentions and actions will be a little more forced through political necessity or survival. China will have more famines and lack of food soon, she is well overpopulated now. Put this together with a very fearful Chinese Communist government and you certainly have a bad political mix. The Chinese Communists(CC) know that there time is not long - democratization is happening quickly. What they fear most is losing power and having their inhumanities brought to account. And it seems the only way they think they can hold power and stay popular is to have a big war with the US. There is not enough room here to do justice to the reasons so I will refer you to a good site - http://www.financialsense.com - for a a reasonable background. Look for articles on China by J. R. Nyquist. They are an interesting read.